Supporting Decarbonization Strategies of Local Energy Systems by De-Risking Investments in Renewables: A Case Study on Pantelleria Island

Riccardo Novo,Andrea Lanzini,Giuliana Mattiazzo,Romano Borchiellini,Francesco Demetrio Minuto,Giovanni Bracco

doi:10.3390/en15031103

Abstract

Nowadays, energy policymakers are asked to develop strategies to ensure an affordable clean energy supply as well as minimizing investment risks. In addition, the rise of several community engagement schemes and the uptake of user-scale technologies introduce uncertainties that may result in a disruptive factor for energy systems evolution. This paper introduces a novel scenario analysis approach for local energy planning that supports policymakers and investors in prioritizing new renewable power plant investments, addressing the risks deriving from citizens’ choices. Specifically, a combined analysis is performed on the adoption trends of distributed photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles that are expected to heavily influence the evolution of energy systems. For this reason, an energy model is developed for Pantelleria island, and its transition from an oil-based energy supply to a renewable one up to 2050 is investigated. It is demonstrated how optimal-cost renewable-based scenarios can assure a 45% to 52% CO2 emissions reduction and a 6% to 15% overall cost reduction with respect to the diesel-based business-as-usual scenario. The analyzed scenarios disclose the recommended investments in each renewable technology, considering their learning curves and the unpredictability of user-scale technology adoption. Consequently, priorities in the installation of renewable power plants are stressed, starting with the most resilient to future uncertainties, as well as promoting specific incentive measures for citizens’ commitment at a local scale.

Highlights

The decarbonization of energy systems is urgent for global warming and represents a key goal of great common interest
Energy policymakers face a complex problem nowadays, as they must combine the achievement of challenging decarbonization targets to guarantee cheap energy supply with the de-risking of investments in renewables [1]
This paper focuses on bottom-up optimization models, which deal with endogenous investments and are better suited for recommending the long-term evolution of energy systems

Summary

Introduction

The decarbonization of energy systems is urgent for global warming and represents a key goal of great common interest. Energy policymakers face a complex problem nowadays, as they must combine the achievement of challenging decarbonization targets to guarantee cheap energy supply with the de-risking of investments in renewables [1]. Their task is made difficult, among other things, by the multiple schemes of community engagement in the energy transition process [2], whose implications on a large uptake are still uncertain. The scope of this work is to support decision makers in long-term local energy planning under the uncertainties related to citizens’ commitment and direct participation in the transition process [3]. Islands, which are ideal environments for implementing specific supporting schemes at a local level [4,5]

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Conclusion