Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?

Abstract

ABSTRACTFollowing the prime minister’s announcement, in May 2022, that Australians would be asked to decide whether to have an Indigenous Voice to Parliament inscribed in the Constitution, a large number of polls sought to measure the breadth and strength of support for a constitutionally enshrined Voice. Some also sought to measure the appeals that might make support for a Voice either more attractive or more vulnerable. This article shows that support for a constitutional amendment, while broad, was not strong: that while majorities were in favour of change—nationally and in most states—there was no majority strongly committed to change, and the majority in favour of constitutional change was declining. It shows that while most Labor voters and the Greens supported the change, Coalition supporters increasingly did not. And it shows which considerations appeared to resonate with respondents and which did not. In the course of documenting and analysing these findings, this article offers a critique of the polls: the wording and sequencing of some of the questions, some of the response options, and the questions not asked.