Supply volume forecasting of building materials

Abstract

Fault times occur due to the late delivery of building materials for which it is impossible to create a stock on a construction site (for example, a concrete mix) when erecting buildings made of monolithic concrete and reinforced concrete. High reliability of supply volume forecasting of building materials per unit time is required to reduce non-production fault times. Based on the equality intensity of the work performance and the structural materials supply intensity, the goal is to develop a generating forecast method of the demand for building materials, taking into account a given level of organizational and technological reliability. The use of classical methods of probability theory made it possible to develop a non-complex mathematical apparatus, which use reliably ensures high confidence of demand forecasts for building materials. The study results can be used in relation to building materials for which it is impossible to create a stock on the construction site, for example, a concrete mix. The practical application of these research results is capable of developing production plans reflecting the real possibilities of contracting organizations, including the production intensity increase of construction and installation works.