Supply risks of lithium-ion battery materials: An entire supply chain estimation

Abstract

Lithium-ion batteries, as the essential technology for global energy transition, require the combined support of several metallic resources and the complicated supply chains that follow. The risk of supply disruptions to these resources has been widely observed and measured. However, system boundaries of previous studies were conventionally limited to the mine stage. Possible supply risks inherent in the downstream processing stages were not adequately taken into account. To fill this gap, we generalize the idea of supply risk to the whole supply chain to describe the comprehensive threats for the steady consumption of lithium-ion batteries. Based on such concept, this study assesses the risks of the lithium-ion battery related materials in the three major stages of the entire supply chain: mining, refining and manufacturing. Results indicate that lithium and cobalt are the most critical materials for lithium-ion battery industry. Risks hidden in the downstream stages of nickel and manganese should also not be overlooked. We further argue that for important energy-related materials with complicated supply chains, the risks should be identified and safeguarded comprehensively throughout the entire supply chain. Such work calls for further database establishment and analysis.