Supply risk propagation of global copper industry chain based on multi-layer complex network

Abstract

Copper is an essential strategic mineral resource. The copper industry chain starts with the extraction of raw materials, after processing, and finally sells the final product. The uniqueness of copper and the distribution characteristics of geographical space make the relationship between copper trade and supply more complicated. The imbalance between supply and demand can easily lead to resource supply security problems. The supply shortage will affect the stable development of the industrial chain. Based on the industrial chain perspective, this study calculates the national competitiveness index at different stages and analyzes the degree of competition among different countries. The study constructs a copper multi-layer network risk propagation model (CMNRP) to simulate the impact and propagation path of supply shocks in Peru, Chile, China, and the USA on the entire industry chain. The study found that: (1) The competitiveness of countries trading along the industrial chain has gradually increased. (2) As the supply shock intensifies, the impact of the crisis gradually shifts downstream, and the number of affected countries gradually increases. (3) Peru, China, and the USA are essential nodes for risk propagation in the copper industry chain. The critical factor in ensuring the stability of the industrial chain is the stable supply of raw materials. (4) Indirect infection occupies a large proportion in different stages of the industrial chain. Influenced countries and indirect influences in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain are higher than those upstream. Research can provide multi-dimensional policy recommendations for China to respond to extreme disturbances, build a more resilient trade system, and improve the resilience of trade networks.