Supply reliability analysis of natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side economic loss risk

Abstract

• An evaluation method for the economic loss risk on the demand side of a natural gas pipeline network system in a certain period is proposed. • User priorities are considered when there is a shortage of gas in the pipeline network. • The economic consequences on the demand side are quantified in terms of the alternative energy costs. • The effect of supply sequence of users on gas supply reliability is described. Most studies on the natural gas supply reliability evaluation have reflected on whether the volume of gas supply to users is sufficient. However, different types of users suffer from the same natural gas shortage, the consequences of loss are different. The abundance of the supplied gas volumes does not reflect the actual losses incurred by users. Moreover, when a gas shortage occurs, the supply flow of different types of users is redistributed according to the supply order. Therefore, this study proposes an evaluation method for the gas supply reliability based on demand-side economic risk. The user's supply sequence is integrated into the cost matrix to optimize the distribution of the user's demand flow under gas shortage. A calculation model of the economic loss cost is established using alternative energy sources. Finally, a reliability index is established based on economic risk to evaluate the degree of supply security. The results showed that the reliability based on the economic risk assessment was slightly higher than that based on the gas quantity assessment. The reliabilities were 99.988% and 99.991%, respectively. The economic risk is reduced and the reliability is improved for the important users after considering the influence of the demand-side supply order.