Supply of bioelectricity from sugarcane bagasse in Brazil: a space–time analysis

Abstract

Bioelectricity generation from sugarcane is significant across Brazil and is related to regional market structure characteristics where the mills are located. To understand the distribution and conjuncture of this sector, this study analyzes the pattern of location, concentration and clustering of the bioelectricity supply from sugarcane bagasse in Brazil, for 2017 and 2022. The data were obtained from the Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency, and the methodology was based on concentration indices and scan statistics. The results showed that the Southeast region presented the most thermoelectric power plants and installed capacity. The Southeast and Midwest regions were highly concentrated in terms of quantity and sugarcane bioelectricity installed capacity. Five clusters were identified for the number of power plants in 2017; for 2022, there were eight clusters. Regarding installed potential, there were 14 clusters in 2017 and 23 clusters in 2022, all statistically significant. The existence of clusters provides information on the competitive advantages in the national market, which can drive new investments in more densified areas or in the neighborhood. Identification of the location and concentration pattern showed that facilities in the state of São Paulo and the Northeast coast were responsible for the most important share of supply. These results indicate to investors the impact of electricity generation on the sector and the most relevant location for installing new thermoelectric plants.