Supply Disruption Management: The Early Bird Catches the Worm, but the Second Mouse Gets the Cheese?

Abstract

In the direct aftermath of supply disruptions, managers typically face uncertainty in the form of incomplete or unreliable information about the consequences of possible response actions. To gain a better understanding of how to recover from disruptions and support effective disruption management, this study proposes an agent-based simulation model of supply disruption responses and organizational recovery processes. Based on this model, we analyze the performance outcomes of a decision-maker's tendency to reduce uncertainty by collecting further information before taking action (ready-aim-fire) or to act immediately (ready-fire-aim) under different conditions. The findings suggest that quick reactions can be beneficial, even if the exact consequences of response actions cannot precisely be predicted. Furthermore, in complex environments, ready-fire-aim leads to a better average performance than ready-aim-fire, if response uncertainty is not very high. However, ready-fire-aim requires more alterations to ...