Abstract

Background: Unexpected events or major supply chain disruptions have demonstrated the vulnerability in which supply chains operate. While supply chains are usually prepared for operational disruptions, unexpected or black swan events are widely disregarded, as there is no reliable way to forecast them. However, this kind of event could rapidly and seriously deteriorate supply chain performance, and ignoring that possibility could lead to devastating consequences. Methods: In this paper, definitions of major disruptions and the methods to cope with them are studied. Additionally, a methodology to develop supply chain resilience roadmaps is conceptualised by analysing existing literature to help plan for unexpected events. Results: The methodology is introduced to create roadmaps comprises several stages, including supply chain exploration, scenario planning, system analysis, definition of strategies, and signal monitoring. Each roadmap contains the description of a plausible future in terms of supply chain disruptions and the strategies to implement to help mitigate negative impacts. Conclusions: The creation of roadmaps calls for an anticipatory mindset from all members along the supply chain. The roadmaps development establishes the foundations for a holistic supply chain disruption preparation and analysis.

Highlights

  • Unexpected events or major supply chain disruptions have demonstrated the vulnerability in which supply chains operate

  • SC risk management (SCRM) is not enough to deal with unexpected events, as it focuses on identifying possible disruptions, mapping their most likely effects, and developing preventive and mitigation plans to reduce risk exposure

  • As we are dealing with unexpected events, it is crucial to define what type of risks are not going to be analysed

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Summary

Methods

Definitions of major disruptions and the methods to cope with them are studied. A methodology to develop supply chain resilience roadmaps is conceptualised by analysing existing literature to help plan for unexpected events. Results: The methodology is introduced to create roadmaps comprises several stages, including supply chain exploration, scenario planning, system analysis, definition of strategies, and signal monitoring. Each roadmap contains the description of a plausible future in terms of supply chain disruptions and the strategies to implement to help mitigate negative impacts. Conclusions: The creation of roadmaps calls for an anticipatory mindset from all members along the supply chain. The roadmaps development establishes the foundations for a holistic supply chain disruption preparation and analysis

Introduction
What Are Unexpected Events in Supply Chains?
Co-occurrence network keywords about about major
How have Unexpected Events been Approached in SCs?
What Strategic Methods Could Cope with Unexpected Events?
Supply
Methodology
Supply Chain Exploration
Scenario Development
Scope and Objectives
Collection of Information
Developing Scenarios
Scenario Analysis
Definition of Strategies
Roadmap Development
Signal Monitoring
Discussion
Conclusions

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