Abstract
We update previous frequentist analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1 parameter spaces to include the public results of searches for supersymmetric signals using ∼1/fb of LHC data recorded by ATLAS and CMS and ∼0.3/fb of data recorded by LHCb in addition to electroweak precision and B-physics observables. We also include the constraints imposed by the cosmological dark matter density and the XENON100 search for spin-independent dark matter scattering. The LHC data set includes ATLAS and CMS searches for jets + events and for the heavier MSSM Higgs bosons, and the upper limits on BR(B s →μ + μ −) from LHCb and CMS. The absences of jets + signals in the LHC data favour heavier mass spectra than in our previous analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1, which may be reconciled with (g−2) μ if tanβ∼40, a possibility that is, however, under pressure from heavy Higgs searches and the upper limits on BR(B s →μ + μ −). As a result, the p-value for the CMSSM fit is reduced to ∼15(38)%, and that for the NUHM1 to ∼16(38)%, to be compared with ∼9(49)% for the Standard Model limit of the CMSSM for the same set of observables (dropping (g−2) μ ), ignoring the dark matter relic density. We discuss the sensitivities of the fits to the (g−2) μ and BR(b→sγ) constraints, contrasting fits with and without the (g−2) μ constraint, and combining the theoretical and experimental errors for BR(b→sγ) linearly or in quadrature. We present predictions for $m_{\tilde{g}}$ , BR(B s →μ + μ −), M h and M A , and update predictions for spin-independent dark matter scattering, incorporating the uncertainty in the π-nucleon σ term Σ πN . Finally, we present predictions based on our fits for the likely thresholds for sparticle pair production in e + e − collisions in the CMSSM and NUHM1.
Highlights
In a series of papers, we and others have reported the results of global fits to pre-LHC [1,2,3,4,5,6] and LHC 2010 data [7,8,9,10] in the frameworks of simplified variants of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM) [11] with universal supersymmetry-breaking mass parameters at the GUT scale
Using our standard implementation of the (g −2)μ constraint based on a Standard Model (SM) calculation [44], and combining the theoretical and experimental errors in BR(b → sγ) in quadrature, we find that the pvalue for the constrained MSSM (CMSSM) best-fit point is ∼ 15%, and that for the NUHM1 is ∼ 16%
The CMSSM and (110, 340) GeV in the NUHM1, lie far outside the regions allowed by the LHC1/fb data
Summary
In a series of papers, we and others have reported the results of global fits to pre-LHC [1,2,3,4,5,6] and LHC 2010 data [7,8,9,10] in the frameworks of simplified variants of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM) [11] with universal supersymmetry-breaking mass parameters at the GUT scale. The absences of signals in the jets + E/T searches disfavour the ranges of the model mass parameters (m0, m1/2) that had been favoured in our previous analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1 [7, 8], and our current best fits have m0 ∼ 150 to 450 GeV and m1/2 ∼ 750 GeV. Reconciling these larger values of (m0, m1/2) with (g − 2)μ favours values of tan β ∼ 40, though with a large uncertainty. We emphasize that these results are derived in the context of specific models with specific universal soft supersymmetry-breaking masses at the GUT scale, and do not apply to other classes of supersymmetric models
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