Supercycle at the Ecuadorian subduction zone revealed after the 2016 Pedernales earthquake

Abstract

Large earthquakes are usually assumed to release all of the strain accumulated since the previous event, implying a reduced seismic hazard after them. However, long records of seismic history at several subduction zones suggest supercycle behaviour, where centuries-long accumulated strain is released through clustered large earthquakes, resulting in an extended period of enhanced seismic hazard. Here we combine historical seismology results, present-day geodesy data, and dense local observations of the recent Mw 7.8 2016 Pedernales earthquake to reconstruct the strain budget at the Ecuador subduction zone since the great 1906 earthquake. We show that the Pedernales earthquake involved the successive rupture of two patches on the plate interface that were locked prior to the earthquake and most probably overlaps the area already ruptured in 1942 by a similar earthquake. However, we find that coseismic slip in 2016 exceeds the deficit accumulated since 1942. The seismic moment of every large earthquake during the twentieth century further exceeds the moment deficit accumulated since 1906. These results, together with the seismic quiescence before 1906 highlighted by historical records and marine palaeoseismology, argue for an earthquake supercycle at the Ecuador–Colombia margin. This behaviour, which has led to an enhanced seismic hazard for 110 years, is possibly still going on and may apply to other subduction zones that recently experienced a great earthquake. Large earthquakes are often assumed to reset the seismic hazard of a region. Analysis of recent and historical seismicity in Ecuador suggests that this region may experience clusters of large earthquakes and extended periods of high seismic hazard.