Super Typhoon Rai’s Impacts on Siargao Tourism: Deciphering Tourists’ Revisit Intentions through Machine-Learning Algorithms

Abstract

Super Typhoon Rai damaged Siargao’s tourism industry. Despite the reconstruction projects, there was still evidence of limited resources, destructed infrastructures, and destroyed natural resources. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the significant factors influencing tourists’ intentions to revisit Siargao after Super Typhoon Rai using feature selection, logistic regression (LR), and an artificial neural network (ANN). It employed three feature-selection techniques, namely, the filter method’s permutation importance (PI), the wrapper method’s Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), and the embedded method’s Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). Each feature-selection technique was integrated into LR and the ANN. LASSO-ANN, with a 97.8146% model accuracy, was found to be the best machine-learning algorithm. The LASSO model performed at its best with a 0.0007 LASSO alpha value, resulting in 35 subfeatures and 8 primary features. LASSO subsets underwent the ANN model procedure, and the optimal parameter combination was 70% training size, 30% testing size, 30 hidden-layer nodes, tanh hidden-layer activation, sigmoid output-layer activation, and Adam optimization. All eight features were found to be significant. Among them, hedonic motivation and awareness of Typhoon Rai’s impact were considered the top-tier post-typhoon tourism factors, as they maintained at least 97% prediction accuracy. The findings could be elaborated by combining feature-selection techniques, utilizing demographic characteristics, assessing Siargao’s tourism before the typhoon, and expanding the context and participant selection. Nevertheless, none of the existing studies explored the combination of feature selection, LR, and ANNs in a post-typhoon tourism context. These unique methods and significant findings represent the study’s novelty. Furthermore, practical contributions were provided through economic resolutions focusing on tourism activities and communication revamping by the government, media outlets, and transportation companies.