Summertime Sadness: Hot Weather Causes Worse Flight and Train Performance

Abstract

Despite the well-known fact that flights and trains are likely to be delayed or cancelled due to bad weather, the impact of high temperature is less explored. In this study, I empirically analyze the relationship between hot weather and flight and train performances. With detailed data from performance archives and weather stations, I use flight cancellation, delay and landing performance, and train cancellation and delay as outcome variables. Under an event study design, I compare performances on the hottest days with those on the neighbor days. I find extreme heat events cause flights departing on that day experiences 17% longer arrival delay, 3-6% longer landing time and 11-15% higher possibility of flight cancellation, and 13-22% longer train delay. I also find heterogeneous responses by locations' baseline temperature and operating companies. Relying on the plausibly exogenous variation in temperature, I quantify the nonlinear relationship of temperature on performances. Potential mechanisms of heat impacts include worse catch-up performances of flights, longer take-off time gaps, higher equipment-related accidents in the railway system. My findings help to understand the vulnerability of aviation and railway system to the changing environmental conditions and expand the cost of climate change.