Abstract
Abstract The daily evolution of local surface conditions at Phoenix, Arizona, and the characteristics of the 1200 UTC sounding at Tucson, Arizona, have been examined to determine important meteorological features that lead to thunderstorm occurrence over the low deserts of central Arizona. Each day of July and August during the period 1990–95 has been stratified based upon daily mean, surface moisture conditions at Phoenix, Arizona, and the occurrence of afternoon and evening convective activity in the Phoenix metropolitan area. The nearest operational sounding, taken 160 km to the southeast at Tucson, is shown to be not representative of low-level thermodynamic conditions in central Arizona. Thus, Phoenix forecasters’ ability to identify precursor conditions for the development of thunderstorms is impaired. On days that convective storms occur in the Phoenix area, there is a decrease in the diurnal amplitude of surface dewpoint changes, signifying increased/deeper boundary layer moisture. This signal is ...
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