Abstract
Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.
Highlights
The Jomon culture of Japan is often regarded as a prime example of a parallel evolutionary pathway where traits commonly associated with farming societies have been independently developed within a primarily hunter-gatherer economy [1,2]
In Aomori Prefecture, the overall trajectory delineated by the summed probability distribution (SPD) resembles a logistic curve, with the density of 14C dates reaching an upper threshold at 5,500 cal BP
We review our results in relation to existing studies as this can still offer some insights to Jomon population dynamics, but we stress the fact that these comparisons are limited to broad scale qualitative accounts
Summary
The Jomon culture of Japan (ca 16,000 ~ 2,500 cal BP) is often regarded as a prime example of a parallel evolutionary pathway where traits commonly associated with farming societies have been independently developed within a primarily hunter-gatherer economy [1,2]. Studies in the 1960s [11] have identified major regional differences in the number of archaeological sites attributed to the Jomon culture, with the northeastern portion of the Japanese archipelago showing a considerably higher density than the southwest This led scholars, such as Yamanouchi [12], to suggest that this pattern was reflecting the underlying heterogeneity in the distribution of key resources such as acorn, chestnut, and salmon (see [13]). These early studies did not, seek to reconstruct temporal changes in the Jomon population size in a systematic manner, an endeavour that was subsequently pursued by Koyama [14,15]. Albeit based exclusively on sites counts and framed by a relatively coarse temporal (archaeological periods of ca 1,000 years) and spatial (regions between 30,000 and 80,000 km2) resolutions, the scale of Koyama’s study is still unmatched, and its estimate of absolute population sizes remains the sole attempt proposed so far
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