Abstract
Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9–14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. Results of the growth curves indicated that the fitted cumulative confirmed cases were close to the actual observed cases, and the R2 of all models was above 0.95. The average growth rate decreased by 44.42% nationally and by 32.5% outside Hubei Province. The average growth rate in the 12 high-risk areas decreased by 29.9%. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak.
Highlights
Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019
On December 31, 2019, China notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of unknown pneumonia cases in Wuhan, Hubei province[1]. This pneumonia came with persistent fever, cough, and dyspnea[2] and was named Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Summarizing the COVID-19 development in Hubei province and other regions of China can help us to explore the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 and provide a reference for other countries to assess the stages of the COVID-19 epidemic
Summary
Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. As winter comes, the second wave of COVID-19 becomes one of the most important concerns of China and other countries Those who have managed to take the COVID-19 epidemic under control are threatened by the risk from imported cases while those who failed to flatten the epidemic curves are accumulating active cases continuously. The course of COVID-19 includes incubation, disease, and recovery or d eath[2,9] This course is characterized at the population level, as the number of cumulative confirmed cases experience a period of delay before exponential growth, present a period of maximum increasing density, and enter a stable stage. This study would extract historical data to simulate a short-term dynamic prediction and discussed the application of the growth curve model in the assessment of COVID-19 to provide a reference for China and other countries
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