Suitable Habitat Prediction and Analysis of Dendrolimus houi and Its Host Cupressus funebris in the Chinese Region

Abstract

The Dendrolimus houi, a phytophagous pest, displays a broad range of adaptations and often inflicts localized damage to its hosts. Cupressus funebris, an indigenous timber species in China, is significantly impacted by D. houi. Investigating the suitable habitat distribution and changes in D. houi and its host plant, C. funebris, within the context of climate warming, is essential for understanding D. houi’s development and providing novel insights for managing D. houi and conserving C. funebris resources. In this study, MaxEnt was employed to simulate the distribution of D. houi and its host plant, C. funebris, in their suitable habitats, evaluating the influence of environmental factors on their distribution and determining changes under a warming scenario. MaxEnt model parameters were adjusted using the Kuenm data package based on available distribution and climatic data. The minimum temperature of the coldest month emerged as the primary environmental factor influencing the distribution of a suitable habitat for D. houi and C. funebris, with a percentage contribution of environmental factors over 60%. There was a substantial similarity in the suitable habitat distributions of D. houi and C. funebris, with varying degrees of expansion in the total habitat area under different temporal and climatic scenarios. Intersection analysis results indicated that the 2041–2060 period, especially under low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, is a critical phase for D. houi control. The habitat expansion of D. houi and C. funebris due to climate change was observed, with the distribution center of D. houi shifting northeast and that of C. funebris shifting northwest.