Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios

Abstract

Ski tourism is extremely sensitive to climate change and is also heavily affected by socioeconomic conditions. Although some ski areas are still profitable under current climate and socioeconomic conditions, they will become difficult to operate in the face of rising winter temperatures, which will result in further economic losses, resource waste and environmental damage. This study projects variability in the suitability of ski area development across China in the coming decades. Natural suitability under three representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), socioeconomic suitability under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) and integrated suitability under four climatic-socioeconomic scenarios (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5) are reported. Furthermore, the suitability of 731 existing ski areas in China is assessed. The results show a substantial decline in integrated suitability for most regions of China except for some very cold areas, where higher air temperatures will make visitors feel more comfortable and the relatively poor socioeconomic conditions will improve in the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s. The average higher integrated suitability area (integrated suitability values greater than 0.5) under four climatic-socioeconomic scenarios decreases from the current 29.9%–14.4%, 5.0% and 4.5% by the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Under RCP2.6-SSP1, the higher integrated suitability area is projected to decrease from the current 28.0%–5.2% by the 2050s and then increase to 5.3% by the 2090s. Under RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5, the higher integrated suitability area is projected to continuously decrease from 30.3%, 30.6% and 30.6% in the 2010s to 4.1%, 4.4% and 4.4% in the 2090s, respectively. By the 2090s, 41, 138 and 277 existing ski areas are projected to be closed under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3/RCP8.5-SSP5, respectively. It is clear that emission pathways and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies will greatly shape the development of China's regional ski tourism.