Abstract
Abstract This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the rapid decline in fertility and population aging. Using LASSO penalized Poisson regression and TVP-VAR model improved by MCMC algorithm based on Bayesian network, the factors affecting the fertility level and their interrelationships are studied. It is found that fertility and education levels affect each other with probabilities of 0.0806 and 0.0825 respectively at 10% significance level. The positive shock of social security level on fertility level increases the response value of fertility level from −1.5 to about 7.5 in 10 lags, showing a positive effect. In contrast, the response of fertility level to house prices gradually decreases from 5 in period 1 to −2.5 in period 10, indicating a negative impact. These analyses provide a scientific basis for constructing a public service fertility support system that can help mitigate the current challenges of low fertility levels.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
