Sugarcane production and climate trends in Paraíba state (Brazil)

Abstract

Statistical surveys to detect trends in time series are fundamental tools to evaluate farming dynamics of sugarcane and of adaptation plans for possible impacts caused by climate change. This work analyzed the influence of climate change in the cultivation of sugarcane in the state of Paraíba (Northeast Brazil), in order to investigate what are the consequences of temperature increase, air humidity level, and changes in the precipitation regime forecasted for the region in sugarcane farming. Data of temperature, total precipitation, and relative humidity of six meteorological stations kept by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) spread across the state of Paraíba and data from the area of sugarcane harvesting from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Mann-Kendall trend test was employed in order to analyze the existence of trends in each station, separately. The results pointed trends of significant increase in temperature for the stations of Campina Grande, João Pessoa, Monteiro, Patos, and Sousa. The stations of Areia, Campina Grande, and João Pessoa obtained significant precipitation trends. Regarding relative humidity, the stations of João Pessoa, Monteiro, and Patos presented significant decreasing trends, while Sousa showed significant increase trends. The results suggest that these trends may be increasing sugarcane production close to the coast of the region and decreasing production inland.