SUGAR DEMAND FORECASTING IN PT XYZ WITH WINQSB SOFTWARE

Abstract

PT XYZ is a manufacturing company engaged in the production of sugar and its by-products. Currently, the determination of the amount of production at PT XYZ has not been adjusted to meet customer demand, which may continue to decrease or increase for each period. If there is a condition that the amount of production is greater than demand, it will increase the cost of storage due to accumulation. Meanwhile, if the amount of production is smaller than demand, there will be an out-of-stock condition that can reduce consumer confidence. These problems can be solved by forecasting Tambora Sugar demand at PT XYZ to meet consumer demand using the forecasting method (forecasting) with the help of WinQsb software with input, namely sugar demand data from 2021 PT SMS. The request data will later be analyzed from the request using a scatter diagram. Furthermore, after the pattern is known, the appropriate forecasting method will be determined and inputted into the WinQsb software. Based on the calculation results, it is known that the demand pattern from last year tends to trend down so the chosen method is the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), and Linear Regression (LR) method, with the best method being Linear Regression which produces the smallest error. The output is in the form of a Master Production Schedule (MPS), namely in the 13th to 18th periods, respectively 2142; 1757; 1373; 989; 604; 220 sacks.