Abstract
Changes in environmental conditions resulting from Climate Change are expected to have a major impact on crops. In order to foresee adaptation measures and to minimize yield decline, it is necessary to estimate the effect of those changes on the evapotranspiration and on the associated irrigation needs of crops. In the study presented herein, future conditions extracted from RCP4.5 scenario of IPCC, particularized for Castilla-y-León (Spain), were used as inputs for FAO crop simulation model (AquaCrop) to estimate sugar beet agronomic performance in the medium-term (2050 and 2070). A regional analysis of future trends in terms of yield, biomass and CO2 sequestration was carried out. An annual ET0 increase of up to 200 mm was estimated in 2050 and 2070 scenarios, with ETc increases of up to 40 mm/month. At current irrigation levels, temperature rise would be accompanied by a 9% decrease in yield and a ca. 6% decrease in assimilated CO2 in the 2050 and 2070 scenarios. However, it is also shown that the implementation of adequate adaptation measures, in combination with a more efficient irrigation management, may result in up to 17% higher yields and in the storage of between 9% and 13% higher amounts of CO2.
Highlights
Spring-sown sugar beet is an industrial crop of great importance in Castilla-y-León region (Northwestern Spain), which accounts for 87% of Spanish production of spring-sown sugar beet, with over 24,000 ha [1], and which is the area of the European Union that achieves the highest yields per hectare [2]
(b) Location of the stations and the sugar beet cultivation area covered in this study
Administrative weather stations and the sugar beet cultivation area covered in this study
Summary
Spring-sown sugar beet is an industrial crop of great importance in Castilla-y-León region (Northwestern Spain), which accounts for 87% of Spanish production of spring-sown sugar beet, with over 24,000 ha [1], and which is the area of the European Union that achieves the highest yields per hectare [2]. The availability of water for crop irrigation is expected to decrease in the future due to increased demands from other sectors (drinking and household needs, recreation, industry and commerce, etc.) and because of changes in environmental conditions [4,5]. The latter are, the main source of uncertainty for the viability of sugar beet cultivation in this region in the future. The net CO2 uptake of this crop has been studied
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