Sufficiency and Feasibility of Proposed Global Conservation Strategies

Abstract

The United Nation’s goal of preventing species extinction by 2020 (Aichi Target 12) almost certainly will not be achieved and the plan to protect 17% of the land (Aichi Target 11) will be a wholly insufficient response to mitigate biodiversity loss. With conservationists calling to protect 30% of Earth by 2030 and 50% by 2050, ambitious area-based conservation targets are now at the forefront of the post-2020 biodiversity conservation agenda. However, given the growing human population, implementing such conservation goals cannot be done without accounting for the increasing need for agricultural land, the main driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. Here we analyse the expected conservation gains and agricultural opportunity costs of three alternative global conservation strategies under business-as-usual demand in agricultural products by 2030. We show that, to minimize the extinction risk of terrestrial birds and mammals alone, these global strategies would require managing over 60% of the Earth’s land surface for conservation, which includes restoring 8%-11% of land surface. Achieving global conservation targets can be compatible with protecting biodiversity and ensuring food security but only with holistic planning.