Sudden changes in volatility in emerging markets: The case of Gulf Arab stock markets

Abstract

This article examines sudden changes in volatility for five Gulf area Arab stock markets using the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm and analyzes their impacts on the estimated persistence of volatility. This algorithm identifies large shifts in volatility of the stock markets during the weekly period 1994 to 2001. In contrast to Aggarwal et al. [Aggarwal, R., Inclan, C., & Leal, R., 1999, Volatility in emerging markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 34, 33–55], this paper found that most of the Gulf Arab stock markets are more sensitive to major global events than to local and regional factors. The 1997 Asian crisis, the collapse of oil prices in 1998 after the crisis, the adoption of the price band mechanism by OPEC in 2000, and the September 11th attack have been found to have consistently affected the Gulf markets. Accounting for these large shifts in volatility in the GARCH(1,1) models significantly reduces the estimated persistence of the volatility in the Gulf stock markets.