Abstract
Significance Although the parties have given no signs of attacking the oil pipelines yet, as the conflict escalates the risks may grow. Impacts RSF aggression in West and South Kordofan may bring it into conflict with local armed groups. Weak RSF command and control over its forces elevates the risks to oil infrastructure. If norms against targeting oil fields are broken, operators may become wary of sustaining their investments or exposing workers to risk. Any major disruption of South Sudan’s oil exports through Sudan would cause a serious fiscal crisis in Juba.
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