Subsurface temperature model of the Hungarian part of the Pannonian Basin

Abstract

Abstract Hungary is one of the most suitable countries in Europe for geothermal development, as a result of large amounts of Miocene extension and associated thermal attenuation of the lithosphere. For geothermal exploration, it is crucial to have an insight into the subsurface temperature distribution. A new thermal model of Hungary is presented extending from the surface down to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) based on a new stochastic thermal modeling workflow. The model solves the heat equation in steady-state, assuming conduction as the main heat transfer mechanism. At the top and the base, we adopt a constant surface temperature and basal heat flow condition. For the calibration of the model, temperature measurements were collected from the Geothermal Database of Hungary. The model is built up in a layered structure, where each layer has its own thermal properties. The prior thermal properties and basal condition of the model are updated through the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation technique. The prior model shows a misfit with the observed temperatures, which is explained fundamentally by transient thermal effects and non-conductive heat transfer. Other misfits can be attributed to a-priori assumptions on thermal properties, boundary conditions, and uncertainty in the model geometry. The updated models considerably improve the prior model, showing a better fit with measured records. The updated models are capable to reproduce the thermal effect of lithospheric extension and the sedimentary infill of the Pannonian Basin. Results indicate that the hottest areas below 3 km are linked to the basement highs surrounded by deep sub-basins of the Great Hungarian Plain. Our models provide an indication on the potential sites for future EGS in Hungary and can serve as an input for geothermal resource assessment.