Substantiation of models for forecasting the regional social and economic rural development

Abstract

The areas of application of mathematical and statistical methods for determining the prognostic model of rural development on the example of all Ukraine taking into account the economic, social and environmental component are explored in this article. Econometric modelling is the basis of the research methodology in this work. As a tool for analysis, a specific system of evaluation of selected indicators and their correlation and regression processing is applied. The results showed that the most influential factors for the level of development of rural territories of Ukraine are ten among the 60 indicators, grouped by the three components. They characterize the economic, social and environmental component and determine some impact on the functioning of the country's territorial system as a whole. The mathematical expression of the prognostic model of rural development is established using the regression analysis. A set of measures for regulation of rural development is developed on the basis of these results, which envisages the implementation of measures in the areas of software, normative and legal support. It is expected that this study will help public authorities make more effective decisions on addressing key issues of social and economic processes in rural areas of individual regions, Ukraine as a whole and other countries.