Subsidies promote use of drought tolerant maize varieties despite variable yield performance under smallholder environments in Malawi

Monica Fisher,Stein T Holden

doi:10.1007/s12571-015-0511-4

Monica Fisher, Stein T Holden

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0511-4

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Abstract

This study used a three-year panel dataset for 350 Malawian farm households to examine the potential for widespread adoption of drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties, a technology that holds considerable promise for helping smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) adapt to drought risk. Regression results revealed that DT maize cultivation increased substantially from 2006 to 2012, with the main driver being the Malawi Farm Input Subsidy Program. Recently experienced drought and farmer risk aversion stimulated adoption of DT maize. In yield performance, improved maize varieties performed significantly better than local maize during the 2011/12 drought year. However, DT maize did not perform significantly better than other improved maize varieties used in Malawi, which is in contradiction to results obtained from on-station and on-farm trials. A plausible explanation is that the severe drought in Malawi in the 2011/12 season occurred early in the rainy season and DT maize primarily provides an advantage in the case of late droughts during the silking/grain filling stage of the crop. Preliminary results herein suggest that it was lack of rainfall in December 2011 that constrained maize yield while rainfall in January and February was less limiting. Additionally, the length of the longest dry spells in December and February further strengthens the evidence in favor of this explanation, but further research is needed to reach a conclusion.

Highlights

Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces unprecedented challenges due to changes in demand for food, market conditions and climate
The crop is highly susceptible to drought, and climate variability and climate change threaten household and national food security
Several drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties have recently been developed and disseminated to farmers in Malawi and other SSA countries, and there is urgent need to evaluate the merits of these promising technologies for drought risk mitigation

Summary

Introduction

Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces unprecedented challenges due to changes in demand for food, market conditions and climate. We assessed performance of the DT and other maize varieties under the unusual rainfall conditions of 2011/12: a severe dry spell early in the rainy season (December drought), with some of the study areas experiencing a less severe dry spell in February (during maize silking/grain filling). Malawi is a useful setting for the present study for several reasons: maize, the staple crop, has high importance for national and household food security, drought risk exhibits considerable spatial variability, and DT maize adoption has potential to bring about substantial reduction in food insecurity. Survey results indicated relatively high exposure to dry spells in Chiradzulu and Thyolo districts: all of the sampled households in these districts reported a dry spell at least once in the last three years Another way to measure dry spell exposure with the survey data is with information on maize replanting. These data were available from one weather station per district

We used rainfall data from the following weather stations

Results and discussion

Conclusions