Subnational spatial variations of fertility timing in Europe since 1990

Abstract

Compared with European fertility trends, little is known on the spatial variations of fertility timing. This is particularly true within countries. While theories such as the Second Demographic Transition have brought good understanding to both the nature and origins of the recent changes in fertility behaviours including concerning fertility postponement, the predilection for empirical studies and cross-country analyses left the spatial organization of fertility timings relatively unrecognised. However, spatially differentiated fertility behaviours are expected theoretically. This geographical analysis presents spatial variations of fertility timing across Europe. The focus on subnational yet transnational data contribute to highlight the importance of local contexts on fertility patterns.After discussing the validity of the indicators and methods, we used mean age at birth in NUTS-2 regions and age specific fertility rates for the fine NUTS-3 spatial units to map the patterns of fertility in more than 30 countries over the 1990-2017 period. Several major results emerged. Despite general postponement of fertility to later ages in Europe resulting in a slight trend towards homogenisation, results reveal existing subnational differences. Most importantly, these differences are spatially organised. Across time the East-West divide remains a structuring contrast but other important disparities strengthen, highlighting the specificity of fertility patterns in Southern Europe and in the largest urban settlements. Eventually this inductive analysis discusses theories to explain the main spatial variations exposed. The study proves the importance to consider subnational contexts, especially metropolitan ones, when studying fertility behaviours.