Subjective probability of accident and apprehension in relation to self-other bias, age, and reported behavior

Abstract

Responses from over 900 male drivers were examined on items measuring the subjective probability of two adverse driving scenarios (accident and apprehension) for a number of speeding and drink-driving-related events. The items were constructed to focus on self versus average referent driver comparisons. Respondents were categorised into “offenders” and “non-offenders” according to their reported behaviour concerning speeding and drink-driving. The data were analysed using repeated measures analysis of variance. The results indicated that both accident and apprehension are seen as less probable when self is the reference compared to the average driver. There was evidence to suggest that this self-favouring bias did vary over presented scenarios. It was suggested that such perceptions may vary in relation to the perceived influence of driver skill within scenarios. Weak age effects were found, but it was concluded that, generally, self-favouring biases were common across all age groups. Concerning the offender/nonoffender classification, the results indicated that speeders and drink-drivers generally perceived the probability of apprehension and accident as being lower than did the nonoffender groups. There was no evidence to suggest that self-average driver biases were associated with offender/nonoffender grouping.