Subjective Logic Dynamic Model and its Application Research

Abstract

In Josang's subjective logic, the consensus operator will have unreasonable results when the evidence with high conflict; the base rate (a) and non-informative prior weight (C) could not change dynamically. This paper proposed a dynamic subjective logic model that expand and rich the theory of Josang's subjective logic. Through the establishment of a cartesian coordinate system and using line / curve fitting algorithm to outline the dynamic track of the opinion, it can more intuitively observe the change and development tendency of the opinions in different observation periods. At the same time, according to different application environment, the dynamic function of the base rate (a) and non-informative prior weight (C) were given. The subjective logic was extended to five tuples and the consensus operator was improved. The new consensus operator not only met the commutative and associative but also was consistent with cognitive rules of the people. A strict mathematical proof was given. Finally, through the simulation experiments, the results show that the subjective logic improved more reasonable and effective. It could be better adapted to the changing environment.