Abstract

BackgroundSubgroup analyses in randomized trials examine whether effects of interventions differ between subgroups of study populations according to characteristics of patients or interventions. However, findings from subgroup analyses may be misleading, potentially resulting in suboptimal clinical and health decision making. Few studies have investigated the reporting and conduct of subgroup analyses and a number of important questions remain unanswered. The objectives of this study are: 1) to describe the reporting of subgroup analyses and claims of subgroup effects in randomized controlled trials, 2) to assess study characteristics associated with reporting of subgroup analyses and with claims of subgroup effects, and 3) to examine the analysis, and interpretation of subgroup effects for each study's primary outcome.MethodsWe will conduct a systematic review of 464 randomized controlled human trials published in 2007 in the 118 Core Clinical Journals defined by the National Library of Medicine. We will randomly select journal articles, stratified in a 1:1 ratio by higher impact versus lower impact journals. According to 2007 ISI total citations, we consider the New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, Lancet, Annals of Internal Medicine, and BMJ as higher impact journals. Teams of two reviewers will independently screen full texts of reports for eligibility, and abstract data, using standardized, pilot-tested extraction forms. We will conduct univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses to examine the association of pre-specified study characteristics with reporting of subgroup analyses and with claims of subgroup effects for the primary and any other outcomes.DiscussionA clear understanding of subgroup analyses, as currently conducted and reported in published randomized controlled trials, will reveal both strengths and weaknesses of this practice. Our findings will contribute to a set of recommendations to optimize the conduct and reporting of subgroup analyses, and claim and interpretation of subgroup effects in randomized trials.

Highlights

  • Subgroup analyses in randomized trials examine whether effects of interventions differ between subgroups of study populations according to characteristics of patients or interventions

  • The effects of healthcare interventions on the entire study population are of primary interest in clinical trials

  • Study Design Overview We will conduct a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in humans and published in 2007 in the Core Clinical Journals defined by the National Library of Medicine http:// www.nlm.nih.gov/bsd/aim.html

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Summary

Introduction

Subgroup analyses in randomized trials examine whether effects of interventions differ between subgroups of study populations according to characteristics of patients or interventions. The effects of healthcare interventions on the entire study population are of primary interest in clinical trials It remains appealing, for investigators and clinicians to identify differential effects in subgroups based on characteristics of patients or interventions. Conducting multiple tests is associated with the risk of false positive results due to the play of chance [3] This risk is great if subgroup analyses are data driven: that is, when investigators perform numerous post hoc subgroup analyses seeking statistical significance. Even when investigators specify a limited number of subgroup analyses a priori, the play of chance may still result in identification of spurious subgroup effects

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