Studying Weariness Prediction Using SMOTE and Random Forests

Abstract

This article is aimed at the low accuracy of student weariness prediction in education and the poor prediction effect of traditional prediction models. It was established the SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique) algorithm and random forest prediction models. This study puts forward to useing the SMOTE oversampling method to balance the data set and then use the random forest algorithm to train the classifier. By comparing the common single classifier with the ensemble learning classifier, it was found that the SMOTE and Random forest method performed more prominently, and the reasons for the increase in the AUC value after using the SMOTE method were analyzed. Using Massive Open Online Course (Mooc) synthesis student’s datasets, which mainly include the length of class, whether the mouse has moved, whether there is a job submitted, whether there is participating in discussions and completing the accuracy of the assignments. It is proved that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of classifiers, so teachers can choose appropriate teaching and teaching interventions to improve student’s learning outcomes.