Abstract
The study of evacuation behavior in response to disaster is necessary for emergency traffic management. As decision-making is not exclusively dependent on observable variables, in this research, it is attempted to study the evacuation choice behavior pattern in emergency response to earthquake disaster by considering both physical and behavioral factors. Personality traits are measured as behavioral latent factors by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of the short form of NEO-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). A revealed preference survey with more than 700 samples was conducted in Qazvin city (Iran) which was based on real-life earthquake experience and the stated preference survey was conducted for six designated scenarios with different severities and times of earthquakes. Analysis of evacuation behavior is conducted by 3 types of discrete choice models (traditional binary logit model (TBLM), hybrid binary logit model (HBLM), and random parameters/mixed binary logit model (MBLM)). First, TBLM is estimated to study the effect of observable variables on response of people to earthquake disaster. Then, by adding the personality traits to modeling structure and constructing HBLM, the correct prediction percentage of the model increased. This study also considers heterogeneous mixtures of population in terms of income, family size, and five factors of personality traits by MBLM. The MBLM captures the heterogeneous responses of the respondent. By considering these variables as random parameters, the Log Likelihood function and pseudo square (ρ2) of the model increased.
Highlights
An earthquake can be a catastrophic incident that kills thousands of people due to the lack of preparedness for confronting to it
60-item NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) provides a short measure of the Big Five personality factors
This paper focuses on examining the effect of personality traits on evacuation choice behavior in response to an earthquake disaster
Summary
An earthquake can be a catastrophic incident that kills thousands of people due to the lack of preparedness for confronting to it. Iran’s earthquake-related mortality rate is about 6% of the world compared to its population, which is only 1% of the world [1]. In countries such as Iran, the experiences of natural hazards indicate that management before an earthquake is very important. Modeling the evacuation choice behavior is challenging and the complexity of behavioral factors identification adds dimensionality to the problem of evacuation planning. Ignoring this component in evacuation planning may lead to inaccurate estimation of the demand for evacuation [2]. Abnormal traffic demand for unspecified purposes will lead to major traffic problems throughout the transportation network [5]
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