Abstract
Alaska’s salmon fisheries are one of the more intensely managed natural resources in the world. The state’s salmon fisheries support recreational, subsistence, and commercial harvest with multiple billions of dollars flowing into the economy, and define the cultural identity of many Alaskans. Fishery management practices rely on historic records to set policies with two goals: to meet salmon escapement quota and to maximize salmon harvest. At the same time, rapid social and ecological changes to the sub-Arctic are already impacting salmon runs and fisheries management. Combined with the inability of fishery managers to test the outcome of proposed policy changes, an understanding of the role social and ecological drivers play in harvest and effort is required. To address the two-forked problem of understanding socio-ecological dynamics and potential policy responses to ecological and social changes, we (1) conducted stakeholder workshops to solicit key system drivers, (2) built an integrated agent based model (ABM) of the system’s socio-ecological dynamics, and (3) tested the impacts of alternative future scenarios of ecological, social, and policy changes on the system’s outcomes. We previously constructed and validated a high-fidelity, data-driven, agent-based model of the Kenai River, Alaska that simulates seasonal harvest of sockeye and Chinook salmon, the fishing activities of the personal use fishery, commercial drift, and set gillnet agents. We study the role of key stakeholder and ecological drivers, using the ABM decision support tool, and their implications for fisheries management policies. Analysis of the scenario based studies found resilience in management of commercial fisheries to changing salmon migration dynamics, a lack of adaptive capacity in recreational (personal use) dipnet users to altered sockeye salmon runs, and the possible utility of introducing management measures in the dipnet fishery to manipulate sockeye escapement levels. These findings represent the usefulness of this type of ABM in assisting fishery managers everywhere in investigating possible future outcomes of different management or ecological scenarios.
Highlights
IntroductionRepeated high sustainable yield has been attributed to active management practices by a single state management agency, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) [2,3]
The harvest of Alaska salmon fisheries has been consistently high since the 1990s, with annual salmon harvest of commercial fisheries exceeding 100 million salmon every year since 1987 [1,2].Repeated high sustainable yield has been attributed to active management practices by a single state management agency, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) [2,3]
The dipnet fishery sockeye harvest was reduced by 54.3% from approximately 185,703–340,778, regardless if the median date of migration timing (MDMT) increased or decreased compared to the control
Summary
Repeated high sustainable yield has been attributed to active management practices by a single state management agency, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) [2,3]. Their approach of Fishes 2019, 4, 33; doi:10.3390/fishes4020033 www.mdpi.com/journal/fishes. Fishes 2019, 4, 33 emergency restricting or permitting fisheries gear and openings based on escapement is scientifically grounded and focused on fisheries sustainability The success of their sustainable fisheries management approach can be seen in the Bristol Bay fishery, where over 10 million sockeye salmon have been harvested since 1995 [4,5]. The returning salmon runs in Southcentral Alaska’s Upper Cook Inlet support commercial drift gillnet and set gillnet fisheries, as well as personal use, sport fishing, and subsistence fisheries [6]
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