Study on volatility model for real estate demand

Abstract

Real estate demand is an important factor to affect the real estate balanced and healthy development, an accurate analysis of the macro factors and the real estate demand relationship could give the government, land agents and house purchasers more effective services. In this paper, it uses factor analysis, system dynamics feedback diagram and multiple regression methods of econometrics. By use of feedback chart, to research the relationship among various factors affecting the real estate demand from the point of view of the consumer demand and investment demand, and build a feedback graph model. Based on historical data(1997-2009), to analyze majority of various factors in the multiple regression equation, and to exam those factors anaist the economical efficiency, standard deviation evaluation, goodness of fittest, overall significant and single significant in the regression model, and then, make the conclusion that “recently the most important factor affecting China's real estate demand is house price anticipation”.