Study on the Vulnerability of Agricultural Productivity to Climate Change in Mahabubnagar District, Andhra Pradesh

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Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change, and any degree of change will bring potential or significant impact to agricultural productivity. Compared to other sectors like water resources, forests and other natural ecosystems, agriculture is the most vulnerable to climate change. In this background the present study is undertaken to analyze the changes in rainfall and temperature over a period of two decades and its possible impacts on agricultural productivity at district and mandal / block level in Mahabubnagar district of Andhra Pradesh. The analysis included statistical evaluation of rainfall, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Statistical software's were used to perform regression and cluster analysis and to calculate the R 2 values which varied from nil to 0.25 in the six mandals selected for the study. Based on these analyses an assessment of the agricultural productivity of the area was made and compared with the agricultural Gross Domestic Product(GDP) of the Mahabubnagar region using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model. The finding indicate R 2 values without GDP varies from 0.07 to 0.31 for the three crops where as when the GDP values are considered R 2 values are from 0.29 to 0.72. manner under different agro-climatic conditions. Indian agriculture is fundamentally dependent on weather for higher productivity and most of the states in the country are largely dependent on rainfall for irrigation which is also true for the district of Mahabubnagar. Any change in rainfall patterns poses a serious threat to agriculture, and therefore to the country's economy and food security. Agriculture will be adversely affected not only by an increase or decrease in the overall amounts of rainfall, but also by shifts in the timing of the rainfall (3). In this context the present study of the impact of meteorological parameters on agricultural productivity and its vulnerability to changes in the climatic conditions was undertaken.