Abstract
This paper uses the SAVR model to study the dynamic relationship between monthly corn prices, live hog prices, pork prices, and CPI volatility from January 2011 to August 2021. It is found that: 1. live-hog prices is the cause of pork price fluctuation, and live hogs and pork prices is the cause of CPI change. 2. live hog prices has short-term positive brunt on CPI, and pork prices has short-term positive and negative impact on CPI. 3. pork prices change is mainly caused by live hog price and its own change, and CPI change is mainly caused by spontaneous factors, live hog prices and pork prices change. Based on the above research, relevant policy recommendations to smooth out the fluctuation of pork prices are proposed.
Highlights
Pork is the main meat food for China's residents and an important component of the consumer price index (CPI), whose price fluctuations affect the upstream and downstream enterprises of the live hogs industry chain, and spread to the lives of urban and rural residents as well as the operation of the national macroeconomic
It means that the rise of CPI will suppress the rise of pork price, probably because the rise of pork price leads to the rise of price
Live hog prices has a short-term positive shock to CPI, the positive shock decreases rapidly in the 1st-3rd period, and stabilizes near the 0 value after the 4th period. It indicates that short-term live hog price will lead to the rise of CPI, but the impact time is short; pork price has short-term positive and negative shocks to CPI, with positive shocks to CPI in period 1, negative shocks in period 2, positive shocks in period 3, and the magnitude of shocks diminishes, and stabilizes near the value of 0 after period 4
Summary
Pork is the main meat food for China's residents and an important component of the consumer price index (CPI), whose price fluctuations affect the upstream and downstream enterprises of the live hogs industry chain, and spread to the lives of urban and rural residents as well as the operation of the national macroeconomic. It is of great practical significance to study the impact of pork prices, live-hog industry chain prices and pork prices fluctuations on CPI
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