Study on the Unexpected Loss Measurement of Environmental Pollution from Energy Consumption Waste Emissions in Industrial Parks Based on Extreme Value VaR Model

Abstract

The waste emission of energy consumption in industrial parks causes huge expected environmental pollution loss but also causes serious environmental pollution losses in the form of accidents. To explore the measurement method of the environmental pollution losses of waste emissions from energy consumption in industrial parks and the effective way of its application, based on the literature review and theoretical analysis, extreme value theory and VaR theory was introduced to construct the extreme value VaR model for the measurement of environmental pollution losses of wastes emission from energy consumption in industrial parks. The maximum likelihood estimation method was used to estimate the parameters of the measurement model. Then, the application test was carried out with the case data of waste emission from energy consumption in Nanjing MV industrial park, which verifies the effectiveness of the research method and its application.