Abstract
The paper is an introductory study on the possible transition from Magnetic North reference to True North reference in air navigation, as envisaged by the International Association of Institutes of Navigation’s AHRTAG Group. The use of the Magnetic Field of the Earth as a direction reference in aviation is explained briefly. Magnetic North is an unstable and irregular directional reference that aviation manages well, but with significant costs. The unpredictability and uncertainties of the Magnetic Field of the Earth might be critical in the future, especially in the case of reversal of the magnetic poles, or incipient reversal. The paper puts forward the case for calculating the probability of such a catastrophic event, with a view to engaging further expert research in the geomagnetic phenomena. The purpose of such a probability estimate would be for the aviation decision makers to determine whether contingency planning might be required or not. Furthermore, the paper analyses the adoption of True North in maritime navigation as a possible model.
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