Study on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Land Use in Resource-Based Cities in Three Northeastern Provinces of China—An Analysis Based on Long-Term Series

Abstract

Land is the basis of development, and the unique patterns of the spatio-temporal evolution of land use in resource-based cities can reflect regional development, help land resources to be used efficiently and rationally, promote scientific regulation, and achieve high-quality development. Based on the land use data of resource-based cities in three northeastern provinces from 1980 to 2020, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of land use in the sample study area were studied by the Markov transfer matrix and a parametric optimal geographic detector model. The results showed that: (1) From the perspective of time, the land use changes in the sample study area were active, mainly reflected in the continuous conversion of forest land transfer-out (11.66%) and arable land transfer-in (11.28%), and the dynamic attitude of forest land showed a trend of decreasing, then increasing and then decreasing, while the dynamic attitude of arable land showed a trend of increasing, then decreasing and then increasing. (2) Spatially, the areas where land conversion occurred were mainly concentrated in the northern part of the study area and the border area in the east, which is also the area where forest land was converted to arable land and grassland was converted to arable land, and the expansion of construction land was more common; (3) In terms of influencing factors, land conversion before 2000 was mainly influenced by socio-economic factors, and population quantity and urbanization rate had stronger explanatory power. The spatial and temporal evolution of forest land conversion to arable land was realized by the interaction of various factors, and the driver interactions were all non-linearly enhanced and bi-factor enhanced. (4) In terms of influencing factors, land conversion before 2000 was mainly influenced by socio-economics, with population quantity and urbanization rate having a stronger explanatory power; after 2000, land conversion was mainly influenced by physical geography, with precipitation and temperature having a stronger explanatory power. (5) The spatio-temporal evolution of forest land conversion to cropland was realized by the interaction between various factors, and the driving factor interactions all showed non-linear enhancement and bifactor enhancement.