Study on the Scale of New Energy Development during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

Abstract

A major issue in the successful realization of energy transformation in the 14th Five-Year Plan period is to solve the problem of optimizing the allocation and coordinated development of new energy and flexibly adjusting resources. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, if the current new energy installation distribution ratio of the eastern and western regions is still maintained, it will be very difficult to control the overall curtailment rate of the new energy in the State Grid Management area below 5%. Another development option is to further tilt the installation of new energy towards the central and eastern regions, make full use of the local accommodation space in the central and Eastern regions. It is easier to achieve the total curtailment rate of new energy within 5%, and at the same time, the total installed capacities of new energy in the whole country can be further increased. It is also suggested that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the curtailment rate restriction should be relaxed to 8% moderately, which not only has better overall system economy, but is conducive to supporting a larger scale of new energy development and increase the proportion of new energy generation in total power generation.