Study on the Risk Contagion Effect of Energy Supply Chain Finance under the "Double Carbon" Target

Abstract

The realization of the "double carbon" target will have a great impact on the contagion effect of supply chain finance risk in the energy market. The article uses social network model and GARCH model to study the contagion effect of energy supply chain finance risk from both enterprise creditworthiness and economic environment. The social network model is used to analyze the degree of differentiation of the supply chain network and the correlation between node enterprises before and after the implementation of the "double carbon" target, using the asset-liability ratio of enterprises as the default risk indicator. The GARCH model was used to empirically analyze the risk contagion effect between CSI energy and Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices from the perspective of economic environment. The study found that there is a significant correlation and contagion effect between the financial risks of silicon energy enterprises, and the enterprises with higher creditworthiness are less affected by the implementation of the "double carbon" target plan, and the supply chain network is more obviously centralized by the "double carbon" target. The results of GARCH model show that the energy market is influenced by the external economic environment and there is risk contagion effect between markets. Based on the results of the GARCH model, we provide policy recommendations for supply chain risk prevention and control.