Study on the Prediction of Runoff Usability in Kaihua County

Abstract

Small hydropower is an important infrastructure for people's livelihoods and clean renewable energy, but there are still many weak links in the planning, design, construction, operation, and management of small hydropower in some regions. Kaihua County is located at the source of the Qianjiang River, and the rational development and utilization of its water resources are of great significance for protecting the water ecological environment at the source of the Qianjiang River and achieving the development strategy goal of "ecological county and characteristic county" in Kaihua County. To alleviate the water reduction caused by the development and utilization of watershed hydropower and rural hydropower interception and diversion, and further provide data support for the assessment of small hydropower cleaning and rectification in Kaihua County, At the same time, it also provides data basis for the ecological flow management of small hydropower discharge. This article conducted a study on the available amount of runoff in Kaihua County. This article uses the ANFIS model to predict the runoff at Misai Station in Kaihua County. The simulation and prediction relative errors of this model can meet the error requirements, and this model can be applied to predict the runoff at Misai Station in Kaihua County. Using the simulated model for prediction, the runoff depth of Misai Station in Kaihua County in 2022 is approximately 2450.420. In 2023, the runoff depth of Misai Station in Kaihua County is approximately 2146. In 2024, the runoff depth of Misai Station in Kaihua County is approximately 771.16. The predicted results can provide a reference basis for the development of hydropower resources in Kaihua County and the regulation of discharge flow of the hydropower station in Kaihua County.