Abstract
Missiles have been playing an important role in modern wars. In order to gain advantage in missile contests, the technology of missile interception have been developed for many years. However, constrained by current technology, it is still very difficult to intercept successfully. Thus, it may need to optimize the allocation of intercept missiles to prevent attack missiles from hitting targets. This paper proposes a method to optimize the missile interception strategy (intercept missile allocation) by simulating the games of missile interception, which jointly considering multiple phases, multiple targets, cost and the risk attitude of the defender. This method is developed based on combinatorial theory and cumulative prospect theory. There are two optimization goals considered: the cost and the prospect value. We studied two cases where the detection of attack missiles is perfect or imperfect respectively. Four illustrative examples are presented to illustrate the proposed method and several directions of research in future are pointed.
Highlights
During cold war, the U.S and the Soviet Union started an arms race [1]
To prevent the weapons of mass destruction, U.S accelerated the research of missile interception technology and the building of guided missile defense system
As for the optimization goals, this study considers two aspects: (1) the cost, including expenditure for intercept missiles and the loss due to the failure of interception, which is comparatively objective; (2) the prospect value, calculated according to cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to measure the outcomes considering the risk attitude of the defender, which is comparatively subjective
Summary
The U.S and the Soviet Union started an arms race [1]. At the same time, the project of missile defense was largely developed to prevent the attack by intercontinental or long-range missiles. This study proposed a method to optimize the allocation strategy of interception missiles considering multiple phases and multiple targets by using a combinatorial method. This study incorporates CPT into strategy optimization in missile interception to consider the risk attitudes of the defender. This study proposes a method to optimize the missile interception strategy (intercept missile allocation) by simulating the games of missile interception, which jointly considering multiple phases, multiple targets and the risk attitude of the defender. The aim of this study is to minimize the defender’s total cost by adjusting the allocation of intercept missiles for attack missiles
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