Study on the Influence of Socio-economic Activities on PM2.5 in Henan Province Based on Principal Component Regression Analysis

Abstract

In the context of increasingly serious haze pollution in Henan Province, which is harmful to human health, it is important to clarify the impact of socio-economic activities on PM2.5, the key indicator of haze. Here, based on the analysis of the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of PM2.5 concentration in Henan Province during 2015-2018, this paper combined the data of ten socio-economic indicators and adopted the principal component regression (PCR) analysis method to explore the influence of socio-economic activities on PM2.5 concentration. The results showed that the annual average concentration of PM2.5 during 2015-2018 ranged from 59.0 μg/m3 to 83.8 μg/m3, with a decreasing rate of -5.955 μg/(m3·a). Spatial distribution of PM2.5 showed “high in the north and low in the south”, and the PM2.5 concentration in Anyang, Zhengzhou, Jiaozuo and Xinxiang were more than 75μg/m3, indicating a slightly polluted state. Among all the socio-economic indicators, gross domestic product (GDP), population density (PD), industrial value-added (IVA) and actual utilization of foreign capital (AUFC) played main positive roles in PM2.5 from 2015 to 2018 but with a diminishing trend, and afforestation area (AA) played a negative role in PM2.5. In addition, the effect of the sown area of major crops (SAMC) on PM2.5 was negative with enhanced before 2018 and reversed in 2018. Our findings can provide a basis for the government to formulate PM2.5 control policies.