Abstract
To reveal the influence process of land use changes on runoff variation trends, this paper takes the Luojiang River of China as the study area, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was constructed to quantitatively analyze the impact of different land uses on runoff formation in the watershed, and used the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model to predict future land use scenarios and runoff change trends. The results show that: (1) the SWAT model can simulate the runoff in the Luojiang River basin; (2) the runoff in the Luojiang River basin has a decreasing trend in recent 10 years, caused by the decrease of rainfall and runoff due to changes in land use; (3) the forecast shows that the land-use changes in the basin will lead to an increase in runoff coefficient in 2025. The increase of the runoff coefficient will bring some adverse effects, and relevant measures should be taken to increase the water storage capacity of urban areas. This study can help plan future management strategies for the study area land coverage and put forward a preventive plan for the possible adverse situation of runoff variation.
Highlights
As the link between the atmosphere and the geosphere, the hydrological cycle is subject to climatic and human factors [1,2,3]
The results show that compared with the 2018 land use scenario, the runoff coefficient of the whole basin has increased
The main content of the research included three aspects: Analyzing the trend of rainfall and runoff in the past 10 years by using the Mann–Kendall test; according to the land-use scenarios in 2010, 2015, and 2018, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to study the impact of land-use change on runoff, where the CA–Markov model predicted the future land use situation; and analyzing the future flow situation based on the land-use scenario
Summary
As the link between the atmosphere and the geosphere, the hydrological cycle is subject to climatic and human factors [1,2,3]. The terrestrial branch in the hydrological cycle is the key to flow generation and convergence mechanisms [4]. Temperature warming has caused frequent extreme precipitation events in many regions of the world [2], which changes the hydrological cycle rate and flow generation process in these regions [1]. Land use is a crucial parameter affecting hydrological cycle simulation. The change of land use patterns affects infiltration, interception, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and surface water recharge in the land branch cycle, and directly affects the runoff process [1,2,5,6]. Using reasonable land-use methods to grasp the changing trend of the impact of land-use changes on the hydrological cycle can provide a strong scientific basis for water resource management [4]
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