Study on the Impact of GGDP on Carbon Peak Pathways in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Abstract

GGDP accounting, as a new green economy measurement system, can more accurately assess carbon emissions and change trends, and provide important support for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In this paper, the improved GGDP accounting system based on EAMFP was firstly selected according to the economic development characteristics of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the scale of carbon emissions and the GGDP of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2007 to 2021 were accounted for. The LMDI method was used to decompose the energy carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and combined with the STIRPAT model to dynamically analyze the emission trend in 2022-2050, and the imbalance was found by the Mann-Kendall test. The results point out that enhanced emission reduction can enable Beijing and Tianjin to achieve carbon peak by 2030, while Hebei reaches the peak around 2040, but does not show a significant decline five years after the peak. The SVAR model confirms the correlation between GGDP and carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the trend of the future impact. This paper suggests that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should learn from domestic and international experiences in carbon emission reduction and strengthen the communication and interoperability among the three regions. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has different status quo in terms of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the policies implemented should be different.