Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the North and Southwest China

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0°–42.0° N, 108.0°–125.0° E) and to Southwest China (22.0°–28.3° N, 98.0°–106.0° E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with ML5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000–2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of ML5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000–2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.