Study on the Factors Influencing the Price Volatility of Agricultural Products in China

Abstract

As a major country in the production and consumption of agricultural products, the price of agricultural products in China occupies an important position in the market price system. The fluctuation of agricultural product prices not only affects the development of national agricultural production, but also affects the growth trend of the national economy. This paper analyzes the reasons for the price fluctuations of agricultural products from three levels of supply, demand and international, and uses the grey relational analysis and VAR model to dynamically analyze the six main factors affecting the price fluctuations of agricultural products in China from 1978 to 2020. The study finds that there is a strong correlation between each influencing factor and the price of agricultural products, among which the consumer price index has the highest correlation with the price of agricultural products. At the same time, the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the consumer price index of urban residents have a positive relationship with the price of agricultural products, the price index of agricultural production means and the exchange rate index have a negative relationship with the price of agricultural products in the short term, and the output of grain and the price of agricultural products have a positive relationship in the short term. The relationship between GDP and agricultural product prices is not obvious.